Have a wonderful Labor Day weekend!!
Opening Calls: mixed, grains continue to rally led by wheat after prolonged Russian ban US export activity
Overnight Trade: Corn -2, Soybeans +6, Wheat +6, Crude @ 7:15 -0.70, US$ @ 7:15 -0.05
MARKET HEADLINES:
Quick Editorial: the grains just keep chugging along, despite a lack of real new fundamental developments—corn was the straggler overnight, but still had no problem carving out new 8-month contract and 15-month spot highs. Exports have been the focus over the past 24 hours, while the trade’s attention will swing back to the production side this morning, likely expecting Informa to follow suit and cut their 166 bpa corn yield by a couple bushels..
South Korea is seeking 110k tonnes of corn for January arrival today, after passing on a similar amount in a larger tender earlier this week.
Asian millers have purchased 180k tonnes of Australian & U.S. wheat over the past 10 days, and they’re actively looking to book more cargoes, after Russia said that they would extend their export ban through late next year.
Ukraine grain exports hit 1.32 MMT in Aug, up from 764k tonnes in July despite wheat export curbs, according to analyst UkrAgroConsult.
Germany’s Ag Ministry estimated the 2010 grain crop at 43.8 million tonnes this morning, down 12% from last year due to early summer heat and recent heavy rains. All wheat is down 5% to 23.92 MMT, with winter wheat making up 23.58 MMT of that (down 5.3% from LY). 2010 corn production is down 19.5% to 3.64 MMT, while spring barley is down 20% to 1.76 MMT, and winter barley is down 14% to 8.66 MMT this season.
Chinese consultancy Shanghai JC Intelligence raised their 2010 corn forecast to 158.7 million tonnes overnight, nearly 10 MMT above their previous forecast in July, and 22.6 MMT above last year. The estimate is still 9 MMT below the “official” CNGOIC estimate of 168 MMT, however.
COFCO Feed Co. Ltd. sees Chinese animal feed production at more than 150 MMT this year, up from 148 MMT in 2009; they expect rising animal feed production to reach 250 million tonnes by 2020.
CBOT Sept Deliveries: corn 877 contracts, with next trade date 8/30/10; bean oil 830 contracts and 9/1/10; wheat 3,138 contracts and 9/2/10.
Export Sales (000 tonnes): This Week / Estimates / Last Week
*Corn: 1658.2 / 800-1500 / 1735.9 *Beans: 613.9 / 550-950 / 991.8 Wheat: 1024.1 / 600-1000 / 1077.6 *Meal: 378.4 / 75-325 / 164.7 *Oil: 12.3 / 0-25 / 16.0 *old + new crop combined
WEATHER UPDATE:
No changes for the corn belt—cool, dry, and pleasant conditions for much of the holiday weekend, followed by a resumption of our usual weather pattern next week. Extended forecasts continue to run a shade above normal temp-wise, with rains still consistently favoring the northern areas.
